SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mohamed Elshorbagy v Miguel Rodriguez (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 5-11,11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,151, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,132, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 26% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 61,772, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 63,483 (based on typical behaviour), Miguel Rodriguez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -0% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 85%, Miguel Rodriguez: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 82%, Miguel Rodriguez: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,749, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,508, level confidence: 85%.