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Greg Lobban v Chris Ferguson (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 10-12,11-3,11-1,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,284, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Chris Ferguson: 11,132, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 244% better than Chris Ferguson.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 95% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 48% better than Chris Ferguson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,275 and 38,284 without affecting his level.

As Greg Lobban has played below his allowed range at 17,835, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 27,164 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Ferguson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to -4.3% and Chris Ferguson changes to +10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes -1.4% and for Chris Ferguson becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Scottish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 72%, Chris Ferguson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 48%, Chris Ferguson: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 37,695, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Chris Ferguson: 11,468, level confidence: 56%.