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Tarek Momen v Mohamed Abouelghar (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 5-11,11-4,8-11,13-11,11-3.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 56,494, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 49,745, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.

Tarek Momen won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 13% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 56,228 and Mohamed Abouelghar at a level of 49,980. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to -0.4% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -0.1% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 93%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 92%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 56,226, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 49,909, level confidence: 87%.