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Miguel Rodriguez v James Willstrop (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 12-14,11-2,7-11,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,603, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 49,687, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 12% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 52,018 and James Willstrop at a level of 46,425. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +6.9% and James Willstrop changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +1.8% and for James Willstrop becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 82%, James Willstrop: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 76%, James Willstrop: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,359, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 48,894, level confidence: 84%.