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Greg Lobban v Garry McKay (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,508, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Garry McKay: 6,919, level confidence: 60%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 457% better than Garry McKay.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 56% better than Garry McKay in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,532 and 38,508 without affecting his level.

As Greg Lobban has played below his allowed range at 11,172, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 21,073 (based on typical behaviour), Garry McKay played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 40%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to -0.9% and Garry McKay changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes -0.3% and for Garry McKay becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Scottish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 95%, Garry McKay: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 50%, Garry McKay: 41%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,319, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Garry McKay: 7,237, level confidence: 41%.