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Melissa Alves v Salma Hany (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Melissa Alves. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Melissa Alves: 7,244, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Salma Hany: 9,095, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 26% better than Melissa Alves.

Melissa Alves won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Melissa Alves played 28% better than Salma Hany in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Melissa Alves actually played at a level of 9,200 and Salma Hany at a level of 7,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Melissa Alves changes to +23% and Salma Hany changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Melissa Alves becomes +6.6% and for Salma Hany becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Melissa Alves is limited to +5.4% and Salma Hany is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Melissa Alves: 86%, Salma Hany: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Melissa Alves: 68%, Salma Hany: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Melissa Alves: 7,615, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Salma Hany: 8,821, level confidence: 67%.