Mazen Hesham v Adrian Waller (Tue 26 Feb 2019)
Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
38,831, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
42,675, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Mazen Hesham.
Mazen Hesham won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played
31% better than Adrian Waller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of
46,573 and Adrian Waller at a level of
35,581. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +18% and Adrian Waller changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +3.8% and for Adrian Waller becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 90%, Adrian Waller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 75%, Adrian Waller: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
40,134, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
41,136, level confidence: 73%.