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Joel Makin v Youssef Soliman (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-8,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 52,336, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 39,159, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Youssef Soliman.

Joel Makin won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 11% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 46,410, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 50,928 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -5.8% and Youssef Soliman changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.6% and for Youssef Soliman becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 80%, Youssef Soliman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 73%, Youssef Soliman: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 51,401, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 39,819, level confidence: 80%.