Tarek Momen v Tom Richards (Tue 26 Feb 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 8-11,11-2,11-4,11-9.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
57,080, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
37,736, level confidence: 57%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Tom Richards.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
36% better than Tom Richards in this match.
As Tarek Momen has played below his allowed range at 51,380, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 54,228 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to 0% and Tom Richards changes to +2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -0.1% and for Tom Richards becomes +0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 91%, Tom Richards: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 86%, Tom Richards: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
56,772, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
38,212, level confidence: 71%.