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Ryan Cuskelly v Youssef Soliman (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 13-15,11-9,11-6,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,034, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 38,762, level confidence: 65%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Youssef Soliman.

Ryan Cuskelly won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 10% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

As Ryan Cuskelly has played below his allowed range at 43,811, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Ryan Cuskelly would normally have been playing at level 45,627 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to -2.5% and Youssef Soliman changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -0.9% and for Youssef Soliman becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 87%, Youssef Soliman: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 84%, Youssef Soliman: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 45,485, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 39,237, level confidence: 78%.