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Marwan Elshorbagy v Gregoire Marche (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 4-11,11-8,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,657, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 46,388, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Gregoire Marche.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 21% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 53,268 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 44,114. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +4.9% and Gregoire Marche changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +1.4% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 78%, Gregoire Marche: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 74%, Gregoire Marche: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,236, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 45,893, level confidence: 87%.