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Salma Hany v Tong Tsz-Wing (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 9,345, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Tong Tsz-Wing: 5,497, level confidence: 56%.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 70% better than Tong Tsz-Wing.

Salma Hany won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 42% better than Tong Tsz-Wing in this match.

As Salma Hany has played below her allowed range at 7,895, her level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Salma Hany would normally have been playing at level 8,630 (based on typical behaviour), Tong Tsz-Wing played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to -0.6% and Tong Tsz-Wing changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes -0.3% and for Tong Tsz-Wing becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 80%, Tong Tsz-Wing: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 73%, Tong Tsz-Wing: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 9,167, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tong Tsz-Wing: 5,646, level confidence: 68%.