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Mostafa Asal v Peter Creed (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-6,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 36,466, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,377, level confidence: 65%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Peter Creed.

Mostafa Asal won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 12% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As Mostafa Asal has played below his allowed range at 32,613, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 35,505 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to -5.2% and Peter Creed changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes -1.6% and for Peter Creed becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 74%, Peter Creed: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 68%, Peter Creed: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 35,826, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,853, level confidence: 74%.