Mazen Hesham v Zahed Mohamed (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-8,7-11,9-11,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
37,885, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
42,744, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Mazen Hesham.
Mazen Hesham won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played
10% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of
42,152 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of
38,417. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +10.6% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -10.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.6% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 91%, Zahed Mohamed: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 81%, Zahed Mohamed: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
38,764, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
41,721, level confidence: 83%.