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Adrian Waller v Diego Elias (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 5-11,11-9,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 41,552, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 54,256, level confidence: 60%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Adrian Waller.

Adrian Waller won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 17% better than Diego Elias in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 51,304 and Diego Elias at a level of 43,943. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +14% and Diego Elias changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +3.1% and for Diego Elias becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 94%, Diego Elias: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 76%, Diego Elias: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 42,727, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 52,186, level confidence: 63%.