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Fares Dessouky v Eain Yow Ng (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-5,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 50,572, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 37,814, level confidence: 60%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Fares Dessouky won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 70% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of 57,017 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 33,540. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +9.1% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +2.2% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 85%, Eain Yow Ng: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 75%, Eain Yow Ng: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 51,388, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 37,022, level confidence: 68%.