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Cameron Pilley v Christopher Binnie (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 37,987, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 26,440, level confidence: 53%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Christopher Binnie.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 154% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 50,493 and Christopher Binnie at a level of 19,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +20% and Christopher Binnie changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +4.2% and for Christopher Binnie becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Christopher Binnie is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 84%, Christopher Binnie: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 63%, Christopher Binnie: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 39,260, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie: 25,271, level confidence: 55%.