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Joel Makin v Tsz Fung Yip (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-6,9-11,4-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 53,145, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,947, level confidence: 57%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Joel Makin won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 8% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 45,852, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 51,527 (based on typical behaviour), Tsz Fung Yip played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -7.6% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to +8.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.9% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 72%, Tsz Fung Yip: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 64%, Tsz Fung Yip: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 52,079, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,792, level confidence: 67%.