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Saurav Ghosal v Dimitri Steinmann (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,642, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 29,803, level confidence: 48%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 200% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 65,947 and Dimitri Steinmann at a level of 21,982. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +19% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +3.8% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dimitri Steinmann is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 82%, Dimitri Steinmann: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 61%, Dimitri Steinmann: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,103, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 28,538, level confidence: 51%.