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Borja Golan v Rex Hedrick (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 9-11,11-13,11-4,12-10,11-3.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 38,895, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 35,185, level confidence: 65%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Rex Hedrick.

Borja Golan won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 15% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 39,745 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 34,433. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +1.9% and Rex Hedrick changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +0.7% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 83%, Rex Hedrick: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 82%, Rex Hedrick: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 39,029, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick: 34,997, level confidence: 79%.