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Tom Richards v Edmon Lopez Moller (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-7,11-0,11-6.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 35,625, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,693, level confidence: 60%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 154% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 55,199 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of 21,745. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +41% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -53%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +7.6% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -9.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Richards is limited to +5.5% and Edmon Lopez Moller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 88%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 57%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 37,540, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 32,063, level confidence: 50%.