Youssef Soliman v Nicolas Mueller (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 12-14,12-10,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,645, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
38,304, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Youssef Soliman.
Youssef Soliman won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
24% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
41,067 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of
33,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +15% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +3.3% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 87%, Nicolas Mueller: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 75%, Nicolas Mueller: 81%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
36,726, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
37,535, level confidence: 81%.