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Miguel Rodriguez v Ramit Tandon (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,131, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 40,700, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Ramit Tandon.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 94% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 59,713 and Ramit Tandon at a level of 30,761. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +30% and Ramit Tandon changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +5.7% and for Ramit Tandon becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Miguel Rodriguez is limited to +5.1% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 78%, Ramit Tandon: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 59%, Ramit Tandon: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,378, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon: 39,034, level confidence: 63%.