James Willstrop v Ivan Yuen (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
47,259, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
34,538, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Ivan Yuen.
James Willstrop won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
136% better than Ivan Yuen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
62,027 and Ivan Yuen at a level of
26,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +26% and Ivan Yuen changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +5% and for Ivan Yuen becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 88%, Ivan Yuen: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 67%, Ivan Yuen: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
49,185, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
33,821, level confidence: 67%.