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Leo Au v Raphael Kandra (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-9,11-9,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Leo Au: 40,389, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,689, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Leo Au.

Leo Au won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 27% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 46,254 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 36,403. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +14% and Raphael Kandra changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +3.2% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 80%, Raphael Kandra: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 70%, Raphael Kandra: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 41,563, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 40,653, level confidence: 74%.