SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mohamed Elshorbagy v Joshua Masters (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66,020, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Masters: 28,843, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Joshua Masters.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 27% better than Joshua Masters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Elshorbagy was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 46,510 and 66,020 without affecting his level.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 41,340, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 55,413 (based on typical behaviour), Joshua Masters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -7.6% and Joshua Masters changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.8% and for Joshua Masters becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 88%, Joshua Masters: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66%, Joshua Masters: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,696, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Joshua Masters: 29,885, level confidence: 64%.