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Pablo Richet v Ahmed Bakr (Sat 23 Feb 2019)

Match won by Pablo Richet. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Pablo Richet: 5,598, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Ahmed Bakr: 2,993, level confidence: 53%.
Pablo Richet to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Ahmed Bakr.

Pablo Richet won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pablo Richet played 65% better than Ahmed Bakr in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Pablo Richet was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,510 and 5,598 without affecting his level.

In this case, Pablo Richet played at level 4,981 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pablo Richet would normally have been playing at level 5,024 (based on typical behaviour), Ahmed Bakr played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pablo Richet changes to 0% and Ahmed Bakr changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pablo Richet becomes 0% and for Ahmed Bakr becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pablo Richet: 77%, Ahmed Bakr: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pablo Richet: 72%, Ahmed Bakr: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Pablo Richet: 5,612, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ahmed Bakr: 3,013, level confidence: 68%.