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Remi Lamilango v Iain Keeling (Sat 23 Feb 2019)

Match won by Remi Lamilango. Result: 11-8,8-11,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Remi Lamilango: 5,284, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Iain Keeling: 5,534, level confidence: 53%.
Iain Keeling to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Remi Lamilango.

Remi Lamilango won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Remi Lamilango played 20% better than Iain Keeling in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Remi Lamilango actually played at a level of 5,932 and Iain Keeling at a level of 4,930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Remi Lamilango changes to +12% and Iain Keeling changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Remi Lamilango becomes +4.2% and for Iain Keeling becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Remi Lamilango: 68%, Iain Keeling: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Remi Lamilango: 61%, Iain Keeling: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Remi Lamilango: 5,521, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Iain Keeling: 5,348, level confidence: 65%.