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Paul Gonzalez v Pierre Vassia (Fri 22 Feb 2019)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 6-11,11-4,10-12,11-0,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 7,337, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Pierre Vassia: 4,463, level confidence: 50%.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Pierre Vassia.

Paul Gonzalez won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 20% better than Pierre Vassia in this match.

As Paul Gonzalez has played below his allowed range at 5,831, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Gonzalez would normally have been playing at level 6,835 (based on typical behaviour), Pierre Vassia played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to -7.1% and Pierre Vassia changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes -2.7% and for Pierre Vassia becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 70%, Pierre Vassia: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 59%, Pierre Vassia: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 7,258, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Pierre Vassia: 4,645, level confidence: 60%.