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Oliver Lamilango v Arthur Bastian (Fri 22 Feb 2019)

Match won by Oliver Lamilango. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Oliver Lamilango: 4,645, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Arthur Bastian: 1,946, level confidence: 34%.
Oliver Lamilango to win as he is currently playing 139% better than Arthur Bastian.

Oliver Lamilango won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Lamilango played 94% better than Arthur Bastian in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oliver Lamilango was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,179 and 4,645 without affecting his level.

In this case, Oliver Lamilango played at level 3,810 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Oliver Lamilango would normally have been playing at level 3,843 (based on typical behaviour), Arthur Bastian played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Lamilango changes to 0% and Arthur Bastian changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Lamilango becomes 0% and for Arthur Bastian becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Lamilango: 55%, Arthur Bastian: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Lamilango: 49%, Arthur Bastian: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Lamilango: 4,657, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Arthur Bastian: 1,958, level confidence: 52%.