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Oliver Lamilango v Silvan Oertli (Thu 21 Feb 2019)

Match won by Oliver Lamilango. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Oliver Lamilango: 4,340, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Silvan Oertli: 1,641, level confidence: 45%.
Oliver Lamilango to win as he is currently playing 164% better than Silvan Oertli.

Oliver Lamilango won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Lamilango played 136% better than Silvan Oertli in this match.

No results for Oliver Lamilango for more than 7 months before this junior event (French Junior Open 2019) so assume an estimated 5% increase since then.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oliver Lamilango was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,901 and 4,575 without affecting his level.

In this case, Oliver Lamilango played at level 3,868 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Silvan Oertli is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Lamilango: 32%, Silvan Oertli: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Lamilango: 30%, Silvan Oertli: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Lamilango: 4,587, level confidence: 30%.
Final level for Silvan Oertli: 1,645, level confidence: 64%.