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Paul McDonald v Peter Billson (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Paul McDonald. Result: 13-11,11-0,11-0.

Starting level for Paul McDonald: 8,370, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,555, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Paul McDonald.

Paul McDonald won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 218% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul McDonald played 218% better than Peter Billson in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul McDonald actually played at a level of 20,997 and Peter Billson at a level of 6,599. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 151% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 92% and 92% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul McDonald changes to +92% and Peter Billson changes to -77%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul McDonald becomes +19.5% and for Peter Billson becomes -14%.

Given Paul McDonald's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Paul McDonald is +13% and for Peter Billson is -7.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul McDonald is limited to +8.4% and Peter Billson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul McDonald: 81%, Peter Billson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul McDonald: 32%, Peter Billson: 34%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul McDonald: 9,063, level confidence: 32%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 15,743, level confidence: 34%.