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Marcus Hayes v Andy Warmington (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-5,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 7,821, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Andy Warmington: 4,382, level confidence: 60%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Andy Warmington.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 53% better than Andy Warmington in this match.

In this case, Marcus Hayes played at level 6,913 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 7,123 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Warmington played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to 0% and Andy Warmington changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes 0% and for Andy Warmington becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is 0% and for Andy Warmington is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 80%, Andy Warmington: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 74%, Andy Warmington: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 7,809, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Andy Warmington: 4,421, level confidence: 72%.