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Peter Billson v Robert Downer (Tue 19 Feb 2019)

Match won by Robert Downer. Result: 11-13,11-9,7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,720, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 18,550, level confidence: 44%.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Peter Billson.

Robert Downer won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Downer played 25% better than Peter Billson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Downer actually played at a level of 19,709 and Peter Billson at a level of 15,737. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Downer changes to +5.9% and Peter Billson changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Downer becomes +1.9% and for Peter Billson becomes -1.6%.

Given Robert Downer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Robert Downer is +1.1% and for Peter Billson is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Downer: 66%, Peter Billson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Downer: 62%, Peter Billson: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 16,550, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 18,720, level confidence: 62%.