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Nick Wall v Adrain Waller (Tue 19 Feb 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 5-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,091, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 42,014, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Nick Wall.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 83% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 42,173 and Nick Wall at a level of 23,004. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to 0% and Nick Wall changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +0.1% and for Nick Wall becomes 0%.

Given Adrain Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrain Waller is 0% and for Nick Wall is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 91%, Nick Wall: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 91%, Nick Wall: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 23,042, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 41,969, level confidence: 91%.