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Rob Staunton v Ashley Stanton (Mon 18 Feb 2019)

Match won by Rob Staunton. Result: 11-8,12-10,18-16.

Starting level for Rob Staunton: 8,186, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Ashley Stanton: 5,861, level confidence: 69%.
Rob Staunton to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Ashley Stanton.

Rob Staunton won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Staunton played 32% better than Ashley Stanton in this match.

In this case, Rob Staunton played at level 7,818 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rob Staunton would normally have been playing at level 7,903 (based on typical behaviour), Ashley Stanton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Staunton changes to 0% and Ashley Stanton changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Staunton becomes 0% and for Ashley Stanton becomes 0%.

Given Ashley Stanton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Rob Staunton is 0% and for Ashley Stanton is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Staunton: 61%, Ashley Stanton: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Staunton: 59%, Ashley Stanton: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Staunton: 8,206, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ashley Stanton: 5,887, level confidence: 81%.