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Gregoire Marche v Benjamin Aubert (Sun 17 Feb 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-8,8-11,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 47,566, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 28,487, level confidence: 69%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Gregoire Marche won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 27% better than Benjamin Aubert in this match.

As Gregoire Marche has played below his allowed range at 38,553, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Gregoire Marche would normally have been playing at level 44,137 (based on typical behaviour), Benjamin Aubert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to -4.6% and Benjamin Aubert changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes -1.4% and for Benjamin Aubert becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Benjamin Aubert: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 74%, Benjamin Aubert: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 46,836, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,202, level confidence: 72%.