Tarek Momen v Fares Dessouky (Sat 16 Feb 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-8,11-9,10-12,11-5.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
55,410, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
51,133, level confidence: 64%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Fares Dessouky.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
25% better than Fares Dessouky in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
59,627 and Fares Dessouky at a level of
47,517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +5.8% and Fares Dessouky changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1.6% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Egyptian National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 90%, Fares Dessouky: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 84%, Fares Dessouky: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
56,121, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
50,280, level confidence: 74%.