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Ali Farag v Karim Abdel Gawad (Sat 16 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-5,6-11,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 70,682, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 60,367, level confidence: 60%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 30% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 74,396 and Karim Abdel Gawad at a level of 57,354. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +4.4% and Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +1.3% and for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Egyptian National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 82%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 78%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 71,355, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 59,661, level confidence: 74%.