James Willstrop v Greg Lobban (Sat 16 Feb 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
46,520, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
38,679, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Greg Lobban.
James Willstrop won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
31% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
48,560 and Greg Lobban at a level of
37,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +4% and Greg Lobban changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +1.3% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 75%, Greg Lobban: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 72%, Greg Lobban: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
46,972, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
38,490, level confidence: 88%.