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Benjamin Aubert v Lucas Serme (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 11-5,6-11,12-10,1-11,11-7.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 27,397, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 37,491, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Benjamin Aubert won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 6% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Benjamin Aubert actually played at a level of 32,965 and Lucas Serme at a level of 31,159. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to +17% and Lucas Serme changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes +3.9% and for Lucas Serme becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 83%, Lucas Serme: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 69%, Lucas Serme: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 28,455, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,743, level confidence: 70%.