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Gregoire Marche v Baptiste Masotti (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 47,369, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,123, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 40% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 48,873 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 35,012. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +2.8% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +1% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 74%, Baptiste Masotti: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 71%, Baptiste Masotti: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 47,566, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,071, level confidence: 82%.