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Ali Farag v Omar Mosaad (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 70,661, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 38,038, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Omar Mosaad.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 83% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ali Farag was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 57,175 and 70,661 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ali Farag played at level 69,736 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Omar Mosaad is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 67%, Omar Mosaad: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 67%, Omar Mosaad: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 70,682, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 38,050, level confidence: 92%.