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Tom Richards v Adrain Waller (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 4-11,11-7,15-17,3-11.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 36,453, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 42,262, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Tom Richards.

Adrain Waller won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 30% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 44,709 and Tom Richards at a level of 34,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +4.9% and Tom Richards changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +1.5% and for Tom Richards becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 90%, Tom Richards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 85%, Tom Richards: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 35,992, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 42,788, level confidence: 85%.