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Greg Lobban v Richie Fallows (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-5,13-11,12-10.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,657, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 26,502, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Richie Fallows.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 44% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 38,141 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Richie Fallows is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 86%, Richie Fallows: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 85%, Richie Fallows: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,679, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 26,584, level confidence: 92%.