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James Willstrop v Nathan Lake (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 45,426, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 33,265, level confidence: 40%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Nathan Lake.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 120% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 57,658 and Nathan Lake at a level of 26,208. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +18% and Nathan Lake changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +3.7% and for Nathan Lake becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 72%, Nathan Lake: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 56%, Nathan Lake: 50%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 46,791, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,601, level confidence: 50%.