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Youssef Soliman v Atticus Kelly (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,841, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Atticus Kelly: 6,777, level confidence: 10%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 429% better than Atticus Kelly.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 56% better than Atticus Kelly in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,295 and 35,841 without affecting his level.

As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 10,943, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 20,121 (based on typical behaviour), Atticus Kelly played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 38%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to 0% and Atticus Kelly changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -0.1% and for Atticus Kelly becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 87%, Atticus Kelly: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 47%, Atticus Kelly: 17%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 35,816, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Atticus Kelly: 7,097, level confidence: 17%.