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Lucas Serme v Antoine-Camille Petrucci (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 37,270, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Antoine-Camille Petrucci: 11,214, level confidence: 28%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 232% better than Antoine-Camille Petrucci.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 371% better than Antoine-Camille Petrucci in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 44,388 and Antoine-Camille Petrucci at a level of 9,416. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +3.9% and Antoine-Camille Petrucci changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +1.3% and for Antoine-Camille Petrucci becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 85%, Antoine-Camille Petrucci: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 72%, Antoine-Camille Petrucci: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 37,763, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Antoine-Camille Petrucci: 10,874, level confidence: 45%.