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Gregoire Marche v Fabien Verseille (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-5,11-13,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 48,211, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Fabien Verseille: 16,334, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 195% better than Fabien Verseille.

Gregoire Marche won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 34% better than Fabien Verseille in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gregoire Marche was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,940 and 48,211 without affecting his level.

As Gregoire Marche has played below his allowed range at 24,712, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Gregoire Marche would normally have been playing at level 36,701 (based on typical behaviour), Fabien Verseille played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 30%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to -7.4% and Fabien Verseille changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes -1.9% and for Fabien Verseille becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 82%, Fabien Verseille: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 55%, Fabien Verseille: 58%.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 47,304, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Fabien Verseille: 16,968, level confidence: 58%.