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Karim Abdel Gawad v Karim El Hammamy (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 12-10,12-10,10-12,11-7.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 61,915, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,855, level confidence: 46%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 22% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Karim Abdel Gawad was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 45,508 and 61,915 without affecting his level.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 39,997, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 53,081 (based on typical behaviour), Karim El Hammamy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -6.4% and Karim El Hammamy changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -1.7% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Egyptian National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 80%, Karim El Hammamy: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 60%, Karim El Hammamy: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 60,872, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 29,944, level confidence: 51%.